Hai Deng, Alena Shantsila and Gregory Y H Lip
Guangdong General Hospital, China University of Birmingham, UK
Posters & Accepted Abstracts: Interv Cardiol J
Background: Success of catheter ablation (CA) for atrial fibrillation (AF) is determined by many clinical factors, which have been derived clinical scoring systems to help predict the outcome of CA. Objective: To compare the predictive ability of seven existing clinical scoring systems (HATCH, CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, BASEAF2, APPLE, CAAP-AF and MB-LATER) in a Chinese AF cohort undergoing CA. Methods: 1410 patients (mean age 57.2±11.6 years; 68% male) with AF undergoing CA during 2011-2015 were enrolled. Symptoms, 12 lead ECG and holter ECGs were recorded before discharge, and at 1, 3, 6 months and every 6 months thereafter. Any record of atrial tachyarrhythmia lasting >30 seconds after the 3-month blanking period was defined as AF recurrence. Results: During a mean 20.7±8.8-month follow-up, recurrence occurred in 365 patients (25.9%). On multivariate analysis, clinical risk factors for AF recurrence post CA were age, AF type, body mass index, coronary heart disease, left atrial diameter, estimated glomerular filtration rate and early recurrence (all P<0.05). All tested scores were predictors of AF recurrence with areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.58, 0.57, 0.57, 0.75, 0.74, 0.71 and 0.73 respectively (all P<0.01). Compared to all other scores, the MB-LATER score showed improved reclassification (NRI range 30%-82.6%, P<0.01) and discrimination indexes (IDI range 2.6%-18.6%, all P<0.01) in predicting AF recurrence. Conclusion: The MB-LATER score is a simple and practical score that performs better or at least comparable to other scores for prediction of AF recurrence after CA.
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