International Journal of Applied Science - Research and Review Open Access

Study the partial long run equilibrium for the time series of chicks and chicken meat in Egypt during the period from 1/1/2015 to 20/1/2018

European Conference on Agriculture, Horticulture & Epigenetics

February 25- 26, 2019 | Paris, France

Khalid Salah El-Din Taha Mahmoud

University of Menofia, Egypt

Posters & Accepted Abstracts: Int J Appl Sci Res Rev

Abstract:

Research problem: The applying by some researchers of static economic models which include unstable variables which are not characterized by the co-integration, will lead to fall into many statistical and econometric problems, the most important of which are spurious regression among the studied variables; the inability to determine the length of time needed to reach the long-run equilibrium of the economic model; the inability to estimate the direct and indirect effects of the independent variables on the dependent variable; insufficient statistical and econometric standards and weak predictive capacity of the estimated model.

Research objectives: Regarding the prices of chicks and chicken meat in Egypt during the period from 1/1/2015 to 20/1/2018 (181 weeks), the research aims are mainly at studying and analyzing the following: stability of the studied economic variables and solve the problem of the instability if it found; the causal relationship among the variables of the study and its direction; cointegration of the studied variables and estimation of its short and long-run equilibrium model; estimating the error correction coefficient of the estimated model and the time required to correct short-run distortions to reach long-run equilibrium; estimating the direct and indirect effects of the independent variables included in the model on the dependent variable and testing the standards of statistical and econometric efficiency as well as predictive capability of the estimated models.

Biography :

E-mail: